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Activity title

M&S in support of Building Resilience and Management of People Mass Movement

Activity Reference

MSG-221

Panel

MSG

Security Classification

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Status

Active

Activity type

RTG

Start date

2023-11-08T00:00:00Z

End date

2026-11-08T00:00:00Z

Keywords

Crisis, Disaster, Distributed Synthetic Training, Management, Mass Movement, Refugee, Resilience Concept Development Experimentation CDE

Background

Resilience is a term commonly used in several nations when assessing the Operational Environment, although it is not officially endorsed by NATO as an Operational Domain. Each NATO member country needs to be resilient to resist and recover from a major shock such as a natural disaster, failure of critical infrastructure, or a hybrid or armed attack. Resilience is a society’s ability to resist and recover from such shocks and combines both civil preparedness and military capacity (*). It encompasses all human activity and the factors that influence that activity, including large masses of people's movement. Such movements are a permanent event in human history and can be related to other big-scale events such as disasters, crises, or military operations. The management of people movement, so-called flows is a complex task due to the scale of the event. The movement itself may shift the crisis to another location or generate second-order effects. Societal Resilience is a critical characteristic in managing people's movement, as the degradation of Societal Resilience can cause a flow of people, which can, in turn, affect the host country's resilience. In summary, managing large masses of people's movements is a complex task that requires consideration of societal resilience to prevent negative impacts on both the host country and the people affected by the movement. Resilience is an important concept that involves all human activity and the factors that influence it. (*) Resilience, civil preparedness and Article 3, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_132722.htm

Objectives

Several scientific objectives could be pursued in research on the correlation between Building Resilience and People Mass Movement management. Some of these objectives include: • Identifying the factors that contribute to achieving resilience in refugee populations. Investigate the political, military, social, economic, information and infrastructure factors that contribute to avoid mass movement. • Evaluating the effectiveness of resilience-building tools or resources available to a country to exercise its influence and achieve its goals. Assess the impact of interventions designed to build resilience in the population. • Examining the relationship between resilience and People Mass Movement management. Investigate the methods or approaches used to assess or evaluate how resilience has been affected by the management of the People Mass Movement. This could involve analysing how resilient populations are better able to cope with displacement and how this affects their ability to move to safer areas. • Definition of a set of parameters correlated with mass movements of people. • Data filtration which involves the process of filtering and sorting through large amounts of data based on specific criteria or conditions and threat recognition through the analysis of social networks to identify potential threats or risks to individuals or organizations. • Definition of coefficients through the elaboration of a mathematical model that deals with mass movements of people. To achieve these objectives we should: • Form a multidisciplinary team: The team should include experts from fields such as international relations, political science, sociology, anthropology, law, economics, public health, People Mass Movement studies, climate change, resilience, crisis and disaster management, and national and international security. It is recommendable the team be diverse and inclusive, with members from different regions and backgrounds. • Conduct research and gather data and information on People Mass Movement, including their causes, patterns, and consequences. The research should be based on both qualitative and quantitative methods and it should involve fieldwork, interviews, surveys, and data analysis. • Identify best practices in People Mass Movement or disaster management from around the world. This could involve studying the policies and practices of countries that have successfully managed the People Mass Movement and developed resilient national disasters and crisis systems, as well as reviewing international legal frameworks and guidelines. • Develop a framework for the research and best practices identified. Developing a theoretical framework and practical technical architecture for effective and efficient national response systems resistant to different types of disaster or crisis including People Mass Movement management. • Test the framework in real-world situations to evaluate its effectiveness and identify areas for improvement. This could involve piloting the framework in a specific refugee crisis or conducting simulations and scenario-based exercises. • Disseminate the findings of the research and the framework to relevant stakeholders, including governments, NGOs, international organizations, and academics. This could involve publishing research articles and policy briefs, organizing workshops and conferences, and engaging in public outreach.

Topics

• Gathering, storage and dissemination of raw data and specific information related to resilience and mass movement of people. • Modelling of mass movements of people. • AI-based data collection and processing. • Development of a management logic for control of mass movements of people. • Societal resilience.

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